The ecological risk based on land use is a hot issue in academia current ly. In this paper, Shanghai City was selected for case study. Land use information obtained from TM image during two periods of 1987 and 2007 was used as main data sour ce. The authors determine the weight values of the ecological risk from different land use patterns by analytic hierarchy process and construct integrated ecological risk index of different periods. Then the semivariogram analysis and block Ordinary Kriging were conducted to gain the map of distribution of ecological risk. The result indicates that the area of building land has been increasing continually, while the area of cultivated land has been reducing without stop. Ecological risk index decreases from the city to the country with circle layers, and the area of high ecological risk expands substantially. Through analyzing the three main par ameters of the semivariogram curves, we know space related range of ecological risk index in Shanghai increased year by year. Through using buffer analysis method, the changes of the patterns of land use have significant effects on the structure of ecological risk. The paper provides a case study of city ecological risk, and the results have great significances to the sustainable development of the city.
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AREAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENTVo l. 30 No . 1 Feb. 2011